Out of these lighting setups, which one best reads as cold pre-dawn light

Question Lighting

Hello guys...hope u guys are doing well...
Context — I don't know much about lighting and composition yet.

I'm trying to follow the whole game art production pipeline: figuring out the story first, then reference gathering, then blockout. I've never done a blockout before and only really know modeling so far.

So this is just a blockout of my props and a test of a basic initial composition, nothing more ( before i start actual modeling, optimization, uv, texture etc)

I have a sun lamp, an area lamp near the window, and an HDRI. I'm trying to capture a cold pre-dawn/blue-hour moment not morning at all.

The story: ( 1800s/1900s ) the explorer was so absorbed in reading his (map) journal that he completely lost track of time. When the very first pre-dawn light comes through the window, he finally notices it, realizes how tired he is, and walks away.
My renders- 


The reference I'm using for the lighting is below.


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